The Rationality of Probabilities for Actions in Decision...

The Rationality of Probabilities for Actions in Decision Theory ABSTRACT: Spohns decision model, an advancement of Fishburns theory, is valuable for making explicit the principle used also by other thinkers that any adequate quantitative decision model must not explicitly or implicitly contain any subjective probabilities for acts. This principle is not used in the decision theories of Jeffrey or of Luce and Krantz. According to Spohn, this principle is important because it has effects on the term of action, on Newcombs problem, and on the theory of causality and the freedom of the will. On the one hand, I will argue against Spohn with Jeffrey that the principle has to be given up. On the other, I will try to argue against†¦show more content†¦In 1969 Robert Nozick introduced Newcombs problem to the philosophic community as a conflict between the principle of expected utility maximization and the principle of dominance. Nozicks introduction led to a Newcombmania (Levi 1982), because philosophers have decisively different opinions about t he correct solution to this problem. The Newcombmania showed itself in the development of causal and evidential decision theories and other proposals. Because the evidential theories (for example Jeffrey 1965, 1983) do not use the principle, they cannot give a solution to Newcombs problem in case you accept the principle. The causal theories which use subjunctive conditionals (for example Lewis 1981) are problematical, because they still have to provide a logic of subjunctive conditionals, a probability theory for subjunctive conditionals and a corresponding decision theory. Because Skyrms (1980) causal theory and Kyburgs (1980) proposal of epistemic vs. stochastic independence also dont use the principle, only Spohns solution (1978) to Newcombs problem is left. This solution which recommends taking both boxes is valuable for its simplicity in contrast to the theories with subjunctive conditionals. According to Spohn it is a mistake to use probabilities conditionalized on actions fo r the results of the prediction, if the prediction is earlier than the choice. According to Spohn it is right that theShow MoreRelatedStudy Stock Market Trends : Ron Insana. Investments Don t Always Work As Planned On Wall Street1487 Words   |  6 Pagesparticular investment. Game theory applies to industrial organizations, labor markets and pricing. Game theory rarely applies to finance. The Nash equilibrium is a term used in game theory to describe equilibrium where each player s strategy is optimal given the strategies of all other players. A Nash Equilibrium exists when there is no unilateral profitable deviation from the players involved. In other words, no player in the game would execute a different action as long as every other playerRead MoreTheory Of Games And Economic Behaviour968 Words   |  4 PagesAlthough rationality provides the foundation for behavioural decision theory, current findings suggest that heuristics and biases have a significant impact on individual decision making. Rationality can only go so far in explaining individual decision making. A large part of early research into decision theory was based on the economic or normative approach, which tries to predict the actions of a so called ‘rational decision maker’. Although Bernoulli (1738) was the first to introduce the conceptRead MoreWhy Are People Concerned With Danger?1300 Words   |  6 PagesTwo possible conditions that lead people to embrace such a state of mind are proletariat oppression and rationality. 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A clear definition as well as the recognition of core elements surrounding the decision making process is required to reach a suitable decision. These approaches purpose to be achieved clear concerns before a final decision-making. This paper will outline prospect theory and discuss the differences between prospect theory and expected utility theory. Following will be, as explanation of the biases and heuristicsRead MoreRationality Is A Common Good2044 Words   |  9 PagesRationality is present all days in your life, and you don’t realize it. When you wake up and choose what are you going to wear, what you are going to have for breakfast or at what time you have to go out to work, you are using rationality. We choose depending on how coherent is our choice. â€Å"Rationalism in philosophy consists of arriving at substantive conclusions without appealing to any data†, stated Ken Binmore. This mea ns that if we think that something is good, meaning that it is good for everyoneRead MoreRational Choice Theory Criminology1151 Words   |  5 Pagesfew dozen theories in just a few weeks. However one theory seems to show up more than the others, and is the more dominant explanation in describing criminal behavior. This concept is referred to as Rational Choice Theory. Over time theories have been produced to explain and help understand what leads to criminal behavior. The reason why people have studied these theories so closely is because of the helpful nature it provides to professionals. It allows them to make informed decisions on treatment

Cfa Study Guide - 15531 Words

STUDY SESSION 1 ETHICAL AND PROFESSIONAL STANDARDS T he readings in this study session present a framework for ethical conduct in the investment profession by focusing on the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct as well as the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ®). The principles and guidance presented in the CFA Institute Standards of Practice Handbook (SOPH) form the basis for the CFA Institute self-regulatory program to maintain the highest professional standards among investment practitioners. â€Å"Guidance† in the SOPH addresses the practical application of the Code and Standards. The guidance reviews the purpose and scope of each standard, presents recommended procedures for compliance,†¦show more content†¦The time value of money concept is one of the main principles of financial valuation. The calculations based on this principle (e.g., present value, future value, and internal rate of return) are the basic tools used to support corporate finance decisions and estimate the fair value of fixed income, equity, or any other type of security or investment. Similarly, the basic concepts of statistics and probability theory constitute the essential tools used in describing the main statistical properties of a population and u nderstanding and applying various probability concepts in practice. READING ASSIGNMENTS Reading 5 The Time Value of Money Quantitative Methods for Investment Analysis, Second Edition, by Richard A. DeFusco, CFA, Dennis W. McLeavey, CFA, Jerald E. Pinto, CFA, and David E. Runkle, CFA Discounted Cash Flow Applications Quantitative Methods for Investment Analysis, Second Edition, by Richard A. DeFusco, CFA, Dennis W. McLeavey, CFA, Jerald E. Pinto, CFA, and David E. Runkle, CFA Statistical Concepts and Market Returns Quantitative Methods for Investment Analysis, Second Edition, by Richard A. DeFusco, CFA, Dennis W. McLeavey, CFA, Jerald E. Pinto, CFA, and David E. Runkle, CFA Probability Concepts Quantitative Methods for Investment Analysis, Second Edition, by Richard A. DeFusco, CFA, Dennis W. McLeavey, CFA, Jerald E. Pinto, CFA, and David E. Runkle, CFA Reading 6 Reading 7 Reading 8 www.cfainstitute.org/toolkit—Your online preparationShow MoreRelatedThe Code Of Ethics And Its Ethical Standards Essay1311 Words   |  6 Pagescountry to country. As a CFA member, you are obligated to adhere to the code and its ethical standards. High ethical standards are imperative in preserving the public’s faith in economic markets and in the investments profession as a whole. CFA Institute members must follow the Code and Standards. If members do not abide by the code, sanctions may be imposed. Sanctions consist of cancelation of membership to the CFA institute, withdrawal of suitable candidacy in the CFA program, and lastly prohibitionRead MoreThe Rate Of Childhood Obesity1575 Words   |  7 Pagesdifficult to make head way or even initiate a program. Thus in this paper, the author will summarize findings on a qualitative research conducted on the perception of children about their body image; the understanding of parents in their role as guides to their child’s nutrition and physical activity; the role of the school personnel, and finally the school nurses perception of self-efficacy, perceived benefit and perceived barrier in addressing childhood obesity at the school setting. â€Æ' The obesityRead MorePrinciples Of Finance 350 : Investment Principles1473 Words   |  6 Pagesstrategies that Hewlett Foundation may use to reduce market volatility in cases where there are low profits (Fabozzi et al., 430). Additionally, return overlay programs often work handy with absolute return portfolio. They are usually based after a careful study on the historical performance and risk exposure of the foundation. Equitization return program ensures that a company’s managed accounts are in the market for the profit making purpose. This is done by ensuring all the available cash are invested inRead MoreEvaluating and Criticizing the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS)1079 Words   |  5 Pagesstatistical backing of their claims to the instruments themselves and not their purported notion of independence. Moreover, using Confirmatory Factorial Analysis (CFA), it was reported that, in both scales, there were only two items that were, as Watson et al (1988) claimed, statistically independent (r =-.10)(Mackinnon et al., 1999). 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Most decisions are made in theRead MoreCareer Advancement Within The Investment Management Industry2132 Words   |  9 Pagesinfluential form relating investment management comes from degrees and certifications. One of the most prestigious and respected investment designation s is the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) certification. â€Å"The designation is globally accredited in the financial industry for its intense focus on investment knowledge The CFA charter is known as the â€Å"gold standard† of all financial analyst designations† (cfainstitute.org, 2015). The program covers concepts and skills you use at all stages of a Wealth ManagementRead MoreSupply, Demand, and Government in the Markets803 Words   |  4 Pages Colander, D. C. (2008). Macroeconomics(7th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill/Irwin. Cram, P. (2014). Price ceiling. The Smartacus Corporation. www.college-cram.com/study/economics/government-intervention/price-ceiling/ (2014). Microeconomics- Effect of taxes on supply and demand. Investopedia. www.investopidia.com/exam-guide/cfa-level-1/microeconomics/tax-effects.aspRead MoreOptimum Capital Structure Of Costco Sale1668 Words   |  7 Pagesshareholders or borrowing money from financial institution in form of equity. It has been a serious process for many organizations to raise capital which automatically has business and financial risks involved. However, two known authors in this field of study believe that companies with low business risk obtains factors of production at a lower cost which may also pave to the ability of the firm to operate more efficiently (Amit Wernerfet, 1990). Therefore, many stockholders faced a high of uncertainty;

Frees No Innocence in Catcher in the Rye C Essay Example For Students

Frees No Innocence in Catcher in the Rye C Essay atcher Rye EssaysNo Innocence in Catcher in the Rye Probably the greatest irony of the novel is the fact that, despite his love of childhood innocence, Holden is and acts far from innocent himself. In fact, he is its antithesis. He acts that way for many reasons. First of all, he has so many responsibilities. Second, he never fits in with the crowd, and finally, he never gets any real help for the problems that he deals with. Holden does have a love for childhood innocence as seen across the book. For example, on page two hundred and one Somebodyd written Fuck you on the wall. It drove me damn near crazy. I thought how Phoebe and all the other little kids would see it, and how theyd wonder what the hell it meant, and then finally some dirty kid would tell them-cockeyed naturally- what it meant, and how theyd all think about it and maybe even worry about it for a couple of days. I kept wanting to kill whoeverd written it But I rubbed it The fuck you written on the wall out anyway. Another example is on page two hundred and eight, So shut up. It was the first time she Phoebe ever told me to shut up. It sounded terrible. God, it sounded terrible. It sounded worse than swearing. There is one more outstanding quotation from the novel which is found on page two hundred and thirteen. I felt so damn happy all of a sudden, the way old Phoebe was going around and around the carousel. All these examples clearly show that Holden appreciated childhood innocence to a great extent. Yet Holden acts the opposite. The irony in this novel is Holdens behavior, which is far from being innocent. He smokes, drinks, always depressed, thinks about suicide, thinks about going embarking to a far place, and has people tell and act in many weird ways. There are three main reasons why he acts this way. Firstly, Holden being only sixteen years of age already has so much responsibility. He has to get money for food and travel. When he travels he has to make sure he doesnt get lost, and actually gets there. He has to make sure that he doesnt flunk school. For a sixteen year old boy this is a challenge all by itself, but there are still more reasons that his life is so difficult. Secondly, he never had anyone actually sit down with him, and figure out the core of his problems. For example, when Allie died his parents didnt send him to a psychologist so that the he can help Holden deal with the immense pain, instead his parents sent him to boarding school. When Holden was kicked out of a schools it didnt seem like the parents tried understand why he was kicked out, and how they could help, instead they sent him to another school. When Holden drank and smoked nobody bothered telling him it was harmful. It seems as if his parents and the people around him didnt really mind if he failed. Holden cant fix all the problems by himself. He needs help, but if there is none then there is no way he can act innocent. Lastly, he never fits in with the crowd. Most likely because his personality is so different from everybody elses. He cant stay himself when he talks to different people. For example when he talked to the nuns in the cafe, he actually talked seriously without lying. .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f , .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f .postImageUrl , .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f , .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f:hover , .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f:visited , .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f:active { border:0!important; } .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f:active , .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .u414496f5268501c1ad4454dcce31a10f:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: Rosa Parks Essay When Holden talks to Phoebe he lets out his thoughts and feelings. While with Mrs. Morrow, as Holden says, Then I started shooting the old crap around.. . Because he cant communicate with people he feels depressed which makes him do such foolish things as smoke, drink, ordering a prostitute, and just leaving everything that he has behind to travel to someplace far. Holden faces three major problems in experiencing childhood innocence. He has too much responsibility. He doesnt have anyone to help him with his problems, and he doesnt fit in with the crowd. A sixteen year old, whose younger brother died, and parents ignore, and is facing all those problems cant possibly under any circumstances be innocent.

Ursa And Generations. Essays - Kryptonians, Ursa, Gayl Jones

Ursa And Generations. Ursa and Generations. It is difficult to come up with a logical explanation of why Ursa's doctors decided to remove her womb and therefore leaving her infertile after suffering a fall down the stairs. She was described as three months pregnant at the time of the fall, so her losing the fetus makes sense, but this hardly seems to justify taking her womb out. Ursa places full blame on Mutt and he stands out as the logical person toward whom she harbors all of her resentment. He was drunk at the time of her accident and from prior account Mutt was insanely jealous, protective and did not want Ursa working. One can not help but wonder how many black women during this period of American History were given hysterectomies for irrational reasons. It seems Ursa's emotions are pulled in different directions. Unfortunately, she not only had to deal with the physical and emotional pain of not being able to bear children but also confronted the reality that the history of her family and Corregidora would end with her. At times, I found it selfish of Great-Gram and Gram to burden the story of Corregidora on Ursa at such a young age. I understand that they did not wish their history and memories to die with them, but the way in which Ursa responds with her emotions indicated to me she was traumatized by their memories. Once she became infertile, she was not able to completely heal emotionally, and she felt she was not complete or not woman enough because she did not have a womb. Ursa became the vessel of Gram's and Great-Gram's unrecorded history, and even if she did not know it, she was filled with all their hurt, anger and humiliation. The way for her to release these feelings would have been to create generations and pass on the family story, something the surgical removal of her womb denied her. When she goes back to Mutt in the end, it may seem that she has gone in a circle and back to the man who hurt her to begin with, but I believe she had finally healed and not only had forgiven him but the generations before her and even herself for letting her Gram and Great-Gram down. Cinema and Television